EDITOR-IN-CHIEF.VINAY KOCHHAR/CHANDIGARH.
The electoral stage is being set in Punjab for the upcoming assembly elections, and all political parties have geared up for the contest. While returning to power poses a major challenge for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), Congress, and BJP are also pulling out all the stops to capture power. Election strategists from all parties have already begun their work in earnest.
Groundwork for Key Issues
As the political temperature rises in Punjab, the groundwork for key election issues is also being laid. Parties have begun targeting one another, and the process of party-switching—which is likely to continue until the elections—has already commenced; several influential leaders have already changed allegiances. A round of accusations and counter-accusations regarding various issues has also begun among the political parties.
The Voter’s Mood is Crucial in Punjab Elections
To influence political equations and win over voters, all parties are doing their homework on the issues they intend to take to the public during the upcoming elections. The mood of the voter holds great significance in Punjab’s elections. An analysis of electoral patterns from 1997 to 2022 reveals that ‘swing voters’ have played a highly influential role here; while they prioritize specific issues, they are also willing to vote for political change if a viable new alternative presents itself.
The Influence of Panthic Politics
Panthic politics has held deep sway in the state for decades, although shifts have been observed in recent years. This brand of politics primarily revolves around religious and political issues such as Sikh identity, the release of imprisoned Sikhs, incidents of sacrilege, and control over the SGPC. Traditionally, the Shiromani Akali Dal has dominated the Panthic vote bank, but recent elections have seen a fragmentation of this support base. Voters in the state are now prioritizing issues like development, employment, and change alongside Panthic concerns. The Role of Swing Voters
In 1997, the BJP-Akali alliance secured the support of 40.7 percent of swing voters and formed the government. Swing voters are those who are not permanently loyal to any single political party or ideology. It is never predetermined which way their vote will go during an election; these voters often change their decisions based on candidates’ policies, local issues, performance, and prevailing circumstances.
In 2002, the Congress-CPI alliance formed the government, bolstered by 13.8 percent of swing voters who had shifted away from the BJP-Akali alliance. In 2017, 23.70 percent of swing voters shifted towards the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), a new contender in Punjab’s political arena; while this disrupted existing equations, the Congress party ultimately benefited.
In 2022, AAP gained a 18.29 percent swing vote advantage and came to power. The impact was so significant that SAD President and former Deputy CM Sukhbir Badal lost in Jalalabad, while the then-Congress CM Charanjit Singh Channi lost in both the Chamkaur Sahib and Bhadaur constituencies.
Election Trends
Year 1997: SAD won 75 seats, BJP 18, and Congress 14. A massive mandate against Congress; the rise of the Akali-BJP alliance.
Year 2002: Congress won 62 seats, SAD 41, and BJP 3. A vote for change against the Akali-BJP government after their five-year tenure.
Year 2007: SAD won 48 seats, BJP 19, and Congress 44. The return of the SAD-BJP alliance, ousting Congress from power.
Year 2012: SAD won 56 seats, BJP 12, and Congress 46. A historic first—the SAD-BJP alliance government retained power for a consecutive term. Year 2017: Congress won 77 seats, AAP 20, SAD 15, and BJP 3. There was a strong anti-incumbency factor against the 10-year-old SAD-BJP coalition government.
Year 2022: AAP won 92 seats, Congress 18, SAD 3, and BJP 2. AAP, the third alternative, secured a landslide victory, sidelining the traditional parties.###CANADA###USA###PUNJAB###POLITICS###NEWS###AUSTRALIA###NEWZEALAND###SINGAPORE###GERMANY###